Warmest January-June on Record

Posted on July 14, 2012 by prairiebotanist

The January-June period was the warmest on record for Manhattan, Kansas. The mean temperature over this period was 13.53 degrees celsius. The second warmest January-June period was 2006 with a mean temperature of 13.15 degrees celsius. If we fit a normal distribution to the data for all years except this year (1891-2011), the probability of having a January-June period chance of having a January-June as warm as 2012 is greater than 1 in 900. The histogram indicates the mean (green line), the fit distribution (black), and this year (red bar, data not used for distribution).

Is the mean temperature over this period warming at Manhattan, Kansas? The slope on the plot below is positive and significant (p=0.03, meaning that there is a 97% chance that it really is warming over the Jan.-June period). It is warming approximately 0.06 degrees per decade, but there is a lot of scatter, which isn’t surprising in a continental climate. There is little autocorrelation in the MHK data.

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Sobering Historical Perspective on this Year

Posted on July 11, 2012 by prairiebotanist

Andrew Freedman at Climate Central writes a lot of superb posts summarizing extreme events. The situation for the lower 48 so far this year is sobering (see here). I plan to post a summary of weather for Manhattan, KS for the first six months of this year with respect to the record back to 1891 in coming days. I produced a graph last month that shows how spring mean temperatures already blew our record out of the water. Below is a normal distribution fit to the Manhattan, Kansas climate record (1891-2011) and the probability of sampling this year (2012) from that distribution.

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Botany 2012

Posted on July 11, 2012 by prairiebotanist

This was my first time at Botany, and I will be back. It was a smaller group than Ecology and Evolution, but compelling research has been presented in abundance…and I think people that nerd on plants tend to be friendly, so it is easier for my particular Myer-Briggs types to strike up conversations with previous strangers.

Kellen Calinger put together an amazing phenology colloquium that featured a series of dynamic speakers and top-notch scientists. Ben VanderWeide just started working with phenology this spring with a herbarium and long-term first-flowering date “side project” for the flora of the Flint Hills, KS, but it was clear from the research presented here and conversations with presenters, that it is an area ripe for discovery and collaboration…and what a perfect year to talk phenology

Perhaps the best statement, or the best thing to learn, was “that there are people called quercophiles”,

and I suppose so am I.

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Quercus macrocarpa at the Konza Prairie Biological Research Station.

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